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Trans-Pacific Partnership Pact Would Have Positive Impact On US Dairy Exports, Imports
US Dairy Exports Would Rise $2 Billion Relative To Baseline, Imports Would Rise $369 Million, USITC Report Concludes
In the aggregate, a report released Wednesday by the US International Trade Commission (USITC) found that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement would have a positive effect on US dairy exports and a positive but more limited impact on US dairy imports.
More specifically, the USITC’s report, Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement: Likely Impact on the US Economy and on Specific Industry Sectors, found that, if TPP is implemented, US dairy exports to TPP member countries would increase $2.0 billion relative to the baseline, while dairy imports from all TPP members would increase $369 million after full implementation.
Under the TPP, US trading partners without prior bilateral FTAs would remove import tariffs facing most commonly traded US dairy products, the report noted. Phase-in periods for tariff elimination differ by country and by product, but most in-quota tariffs are eliminated upon entry into force.
Important TPP dairy markets Japan and Canada would lower selected tariffs over long phase-in periods, but both countries would remain highly managed markets even after TPP implementation because their tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) nearly always fill, the report said.
For many dairy products not facing import TRQs, Japan would maintain non-zero duties after full implementation, such as ice cream at 7 to 10 percent. In addition, Japan also maintains safeguard volume measures for imports of whey protein concentrate and whey powder, which may hinder US exports to Japan in the early years of TPP implementation until safeguard trigger volumes expand well beyond current export levels.
Aside from the US, only Canada, Japan, and Malaysia would create new TRQs for dairy products under the TPP agreement. Canada agreed to a broad range of
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